2024 MLB Draft Profile: Brody Brecht
Draft Profile: Brody Brecht (Iowa)
Height: 6'4
Weight: 225
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Brody Brecht, a former two-sport athlete at the University of Iowa (he also played football), is poised to show his talents this year in anticipation of the 2024 MLB Draft.
First off, Brecht is an athlete for a pitcher. As shown by the fact he used to be a former Division One Wide Receiver, he can run well and has agility when moving off the mound, which is a bonus for a pitcher of his physical build.
Brecht poses some similarities to Wake Forest pitcher Chase Burns. He throws a fastball over 100 MPH on average (as high as 104 MPH), and leans into a hard slider in the high 80s with a tighter movement profile.
His quality of contact metrics against LHH and RHH are virtually the same, with minimal quality contact (barrel rate of less than 2 percent on either side, as well as a hard hit rate of less than four percent). It has been useful for him especially against RHH to expand the zone, with a whiff rate of around 30 percent over the last year, and a batting average of only a little over .100 in 2023.
Lefties fare a little better against it, but not by much, with low-quality contact and an average just over .200 despite whiff rates being lower at around 18 percent in 2023.
Brecht’s slider became his primary pitch in 2024, overtaking his fastball by usage (slightly). He tends to use it more than his fastball when he is ahead in counts.
RHH tends to handle it better, though that is relative, as they only hit around .200 against it with a whiff rate over 50 percent and a chase rate over 30 percent.
LHH especially struggles against it, batting a little over .100 with hard-hit and barrel rates below 2.5 percent and very low quality of contact (sub .200 xwOBA). In addition, he generated a whiff rate of over 50 percent against them, and a chase rate of around 30 percent.
Additional Info and Conclusion
Brecht’s release points are pretty consistent, which is nice. It doesn’t provide obvious lineage to what the pitch is, which is important since he has only been a two-pitch pitcher.
Brecht is a two-pitch pitcher, but he uses both effectively to limit damage, and his splits between LHH and RHH are virtually identical across the board (in fact, he has been slightly better against LHH in his collegiate career).
Brecht’s one distinguishable knock against him is his lack of command. He has averaged a BB/9 rate of over 8 batters per nine innings in the last two years. He also walked 61 batters last year in 77 innings pitched, which was in the top 5 for most walks by a D1 pitcher last year, and that is a big concern which limited him from going deeper in his starts.
There’s no denying Brecht’s upside. He has been compared to Paul Skenes in terms of pure stuff, which is understandable, but they are miles apart in terms of command and execution. Brecht can miss bats, but often he doesn’t know where it is going, and that is problematic.
The age-old question of “Can you teach command?” is going to be the defining factor in a team selecting Brecht in the first round this year. Someone is going to do it, but I am curious as to who that will be.
I think command is a big step to overcome and it is hard to teach. He has another year to show progress in this area, but it brings potential downside that he is only a relief arm at the major league level, rather than the potential of a front-line starter.
I will be curious to see how Brecht continues to grow in 2024 and to see if he can show progression to at least an average level of command. There is a lot to be intrigued by, but by no means is he a perfect prospect (seldom many are).
