2024 MLB Draft Profile: Charlie Condon
Draft Profile: Charlie Condon (Georgia)
Height: 6'6
Weight: 210
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Charlie Condon had one of the best introductory seasons in the SEC ever in 2023. This has positioned Condon to be a top 5 pick in the MLB Draft, as one of the best bats there is.
Against players such as Drew Beam and Hagen Smith, poised to be first-round picks in the 2024 Draft, Condon’s bat had the discernable ability to punish fastballs that they left over the plate.
Condon crushed fastballs in 2023 from either LHP or RHP, batting over .400 against each with high-quality contact levels and in-zone contact rates around 90%, with exit velocities as high as 115 MPH. His hard-hit percentage with exit velocities ≥ 95 MPH was over 60 percent against fastballs from both sides.
Even in Condon’s limited sample size against higher fastball velocity levels (≥ 95 MPH), Condon hit over .400 against them with a hard-hit rate of over 25 percent.
Condon’s ability to hit glove-side movement is generally pretty strong. Sliders have his highest whiff rate among glove-side pitches he faces, around 27 percent, but he does damage against it often, especially against LHP, where he hovered around a .400 batting average, .700 slugging percentage, an xwOBA over .500, and a hard-hit rate of over 70 percent. Sliders from RHP do tend to shake him relative to his performance against other pitches, but he holds his own, with a whiff rate under 30 percent and a slugging percentage that approaches .600, though his quality of contact diminishes a bit.
Curveballs are not an issue for Condon at this level. His chase rate hovers around 30 percent, but he whiffs at them around 25 percent of the time and has a very high in-zone contact rate against them. In limited samples, he hit over .450 against them from LHP or RHP, with hard-hit rates over 35 percent and an astounding 50 percent barrel rate from right-handed curveballs.
If there is a pitch to attack Condon with, it’s the changeup, particularly from LHP (contrary to the clip above). Condon does damage on it from RHP, hitting over .300 with a 40 percent hard-hit rate, but he did whiff more than 40 percent of the time. Against LHP Condon only cracked an average of a little over .220, but the quality of contact was on par with what he was doing against LHP.
The bone to pick with changeups is that Condon chases them a lot, with rates into the mid to high 30s from either side. The quality of contact is fine, but if there is a pitch that he does not seem to crush, it is the changeup.
Condon’s swing mechanics are nice to look at. He does a good job of implementing a lead leg block and establishing a foot plant after hip rotation. It is not a long motion, it is swift and smooth, and fundamentally sound. He tends to lean more into being a pull-side hitter than hitting to all fields.
Condon’s defensive position is more of a projection question. He has spent time briefly at all three outfield spots. I believe he has the capability to play a corner outfield spot at the major league level, though a lot of people like his frame and body type at first base. He has worked hard to make progress on his ability in the outfield and at third base — so I expect to see some progression and projection from that this coming season.
As a whole, Condon’s profile offensively is incredibly appealing. He hits both RHP and LHP very well (the splits and quality of contact are almost identical), and he has strong bat-to-ball skills, and as a whole does not overextend or expand the zone on himself a great deal. If you are really nitpicking, which I suppose is part of a scout’s job, I would like to see him improve his swing decisions a little against LHP to cut down a tad on the chase rates. I also would like to see him use his feel for the strike zone to show he can draw more walks in 2024. He certainly is capable of doing a lot of damage — but for his future projections, working counts to get on-base via walk more would be nice to see.
Condon should be a pick in the top 5 of the MLB Draft, and his profile is incredibly intriguing with his evident hit tool on full display.
