2024 MLB Draft Profile: Chase Burns
Draft Profile: Chase Burns (Wake Forest, transfer from Tennessee)
Height: 6'4
Weight: 195
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Chase Burns, arguably the best player to transfer in college baseball over the summer, is poised to be one of the first players taken in the 2024 MLB Draft. In order to better harness his development, he transferred to Wake Forest, as it is quickly becoming the centerpiece for player development for pitchers in college baseball. It is hard to ignore what being in that program did for Rhett Lowder, Josh Hartle, Michael Massey, and more.
Burns’s fastball profile obviously intrigues teams, which can touch as high as 102 MPH with 18 inches of induced vertical break. His fastball, especially against RHP, can be overwhelming when expanding the zone, generating whiff rates of over 25 percent and getting barreled less than 2 percent of the time.
Burns’s best pitch, believe it or not, may be his slider. He throws it hard, which means it is tighter and not quite as sweeping in its movement, but it has been a prolific putaway pitch for him at the college level.
Burns whiff rates were over 40 percent against either LHH or RHH and over 60 percent in 2023 against RHH. RHH hit less than .140 against it in 2023, while LHH hit around .260, but the quality of contact was very poor from either side. He generates substantial levels of swings and misses with his slider.
Overall, he has been dominant against RHH at the college level.
Weaknesses
Burns is primarily a two-pitch pitcher. I believe Wake Forest will help him expand his arsenal in 2023, hopefully with more usage of both his changeup to assist arm-side movement and his curveball to assist glove-side movement. His two primary pitches are good, but to be a frontline starting pitcher for an MLB team I would like to see some growth and progression toward a third pitch.
Second, LHH has a tendency to damage Burns. They would often sit on his fastball due to a lack of diversity in his arsenal and hit over .330 against it in 2023 with a lot of quality contact, and less swing and miss compared to RHH.
Conclusion
Burns is possibly going to be the first pitcher taken in the 2024 draft. There is obvious upside due to his fastball and slider profile that may enable him to be a frontline starter someday.
He has a chance to be special, and I think Wake Forest will work wonders for his professional aspirations in 2024.
