2024 MLB Draft Profile: Jonathan Santucci
Draft Profile: Jonathan Santucci (Duke)
Height: 6'2
Weight: 200
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Jonathan Santucci, an impactful left-handed arm who is the mainstay of Duke’s weekend rotation and potential Omaha charge, is one prospect to keep an eye on during the buildup to the 2024 MLB Draft.
The first thing to denote with Santucci is he has a pretty effective three-pitch mix. His three pitches all generate whiff rates at an above-average rate (in the case of the slider and changeup, an elite rate, at 55% and 66% respectively). In general, he ranks in the 99th percentile for whiff rate in all of college baseball (according to 643).
He also is a capable athlete. He could have committed to being a full-time two-way player, but instead opted to focus his craft on becoming a better pitcher (which was probably for the best).
In addition, his general motions are low effort (which is a plus to me in this era of arm injuries). His motions are consistent, and does a pretty good job of maintaining consistent release points on his pitches.
Santucci’s fastball sits generally in the mid-90s at around 94 MPH and can reach as high as 97 on the radar gun, with an average of 19 inches of IVB. Generally, I would say Santucci’s fastball is above-average, but it does not have the elite swing-and-miss generation ability compared to some of his potential first or second-round counterparts. He can get it up to around a 37% whiff rate against RHH (which is pretty good), but it’s not as effective at doing so versus LHH that he faces. That is not to say he cannot generate it, but I would hope to see an elite whiff rate against one of the batter sides.
Compared to Chase Burns, who had similar questions about his swing-and-miss generation with his fastball, Santucci has not taken the step forward with it that I expected. While it’s by no means a bad pitch, and grades out as above-average, he needs to develop more of his usage with it beyond overwhelming batters with carry in the top half of the zone.
Santucci’s slider is his best pitch, with the ability to generate significant swing-and-miss. He has generated a 58% whiff rate against LHH and an astonishing 71% whiff rate against RHH in 2024 so far. It grades out to 139 on 643’s Stuff+ model with slightly above-average command. Santucci leans on this pitch a lot, but is is incredibly effective and builds his profile up to have a wipeout breaking ball.
In addition, though he does not use it as much, Santucci’s dropping changeup also has a substantial ability to miss bats — with a 57% whiff rate against RHP.
Santucci’s concerns are more rooted in command. He has had his walk rate jump to a BB/9 of over 6. While I do think he is impressive by most measurements in terms of stuff — his command is still a work in progress. This is a particular concern if he cannot generate whiffs with his fastball at an elite rate, so this would be something to note when analyzing Santucci.
Overall, while I do think concerns about his command are valid (but a tad overstated), along with his fastball makeup not being elite (but still good, its effective) — I think his overall pitch arsenal and physical makeup will be more than enough to keep him in the first round, probably in the teens, but he will be there. Pitchers with his profile typically do not last long.
