Potential Off-Season Trades: Dylan Cease
Dylan Cease is one of the more potentially appealing potential starting pitching options on the market thanks to his physical abilities and his team control for multiple years. He has not been as stable or consistent as some of the other options, but he comes with multiple years under contract and an upside that is immensely high, which is appealing.
Cease, who will be a free agent after the 2025 season, posted a 4.58 ERA in 2023, along with 214 strikeouts in 177 innings (10.9 K/9), 4.0 BB/9, and a FIP of 3.72. While slightly below his typical expectation, his 2021 season was outstanding, where he posted a 2.20 ERA with 227 strikeouts in 184 innings pitched (11.9 K/9), along with a WHIP of 1.10 and a FIP of 3.10. The 2022 version of Cease is the Cease that other teams believe could contribute to their staff in 2024 and beyond. He comes with slightly more tangible risk than others, but there is plenty that is appealing to other teams when it comes to entertaining adding Dylan Cease as one of your starting pitchers for 2024.
Baltimore Orioles
The Offer: Colton Cowser, Joey Ortiz, and a PTBNL for Dylan Cease.
The Orioles are at the forefront of a blossoming championship window, and they are solely missing a frontline starting pitcher to help them contend for a World Series Title over the rest of the decade. Cease would certainly help fill the need for quality frontline starting pitching, and would be under control for multiple seasons, which is attractive for Baltimore.
Cease would also play well in Baltimore relative to their defense that will only continue to improve with their incoming prospect pool, as well as having one of the friendliest pitcher-friendly parks at his disposal for right-handed pitchers (90 Park Factor for Right Handed Hitters, 96 Park Factor from both sides of the slate, which ranks 1st and 7th respectively in terms of pitcher friendliness).
Cowser and Ortiz are two of the top five Orioles prospects, who are each already MLB-caliber players with multiple years of control that can contribute to the White Sox immediately. They are both top 100 prospects according to most baseball prospect-evaluation sites.
Cowser is one of the most coveted prospects in baseball, ranked second in the system behind Jackson Holliday. Cowser would likely be the top overall prospect for a majority of MLB teams if he were in their farm ranks. He would be a fantastic centerpiece of a trade involving Dylan Cease. As a former top 5 pick in the MLB Draft in 2021, Cowser cruised through the Orioles rankings, demonstrating a keen ability to show off his hit tool and his ability to drive the ball to all fields as a hitter. In my opinion, he can be a plus defender at the Major League level at either corner outfield position thanks to his strong arm and likely has the athleticism to be respectable in centerfield as well. He struggled in his brief tenure in the Major Leagues when he was called up in September, but he projects to be a substantial contributor to an MLB team going forward.
Ortiz is subject to an impending logjam in the infield for the Orioles with their prospect surplus. With that being said, he has given himself a substantive argument to be a part of the Orioles’ future thanks to his growth as a player both as a hitter and fielder in 2023. Ortiz gives Chicago another prospect in this deal who is ready to contribute at the Major League level in 2024. He has the ability and range to be a plus defender at shortstop in the Major Leagues and has developed his approach during the course of his rise in the Orioles system. He also has grown to display a tangible power stroke during his time in the minors, which he did not display in his earlier days as a prospect.
Cincinnati Reds
The Offer: Rhett Lowder and Edwin Arroyo for Dylan Cease.
The Reds, who are also looking to take a leap in 2024 by contending for the NL Central, narrowly missed the playoffs in 2023 by a few games. They have an exciting young core with a lot of farm system talent and may look to add to their major league roster in 2024. The Reds could use an Ace to headline their staff, and Cease would assist in that development. While Cease is a good pitcher, the Reds play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, and last year had the second worst OAA among teams in the MLB, so it would help to also improve their defense on a team level in 2024 to help contribute to Cease’s success in a Reds uniform.
Edwin Arroyo and Rhett Lowder are also two of the top five prospects in a talented Reds system.
Arroyo, a talented switch-hitting shortstop who is a top-100 overall prospect, has particularly shown upside playing at shortstop. He definitely has the range and arm strength to profile as a plus defender at the Major League level, which will only continue to grow with the development of his physical traits. While Arroyo still has work to do offensively and could improve his approach, he could continue to build his power profile over the coming years in the minor leagues and show the ability to be an impact hitter if he can consistently display his quality of contact.
Lowder, another top 100 prospect, had a standout season in his final year at Wake Forest, which led him to be the Reds first-round selection in the 2023 MLB Draft. Lowder’s top trademark is his command, which has been quite evident in the back of his college career and his early minor league career. He primarily throws three pitches which are all plus pitches in his projection evaluations (Fastball, Slider, Changeup). He especially does a good job playing his off-speed pitches off of his Fastball, helping him generate more swings and misses with his secondary pitches rather than trying to blow batters away with his fastball. Lowder will need more time in the minors, but he has the potential to be an immense contributor to a Major League rotation in the future.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Offer: Dalton Rushing, Andy Pages, Kyle Hurt, and a PTBNL for Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech.
The Dodgers are suddenly in the market for starting pitching due to their influx of injuries to their Major League Pitchers. Cease may be more intriguing to the Dodgers than other pitchers thanks to his outstanding ability to generate swings and misses frequently, as well as his multiple years of team control. They also have the prospect capital and farm system depth that would suit the needs of what the White Sox desire in a trade for Cease. They also acquire Kopech in the deal, who has some traits akin to Cease but has had a tendency to display that more out of the bullpen than as a starting pitcher. Kopech could help fill out the depth in a Dodgers rotation, who will need multiple starting pitchers to fill out their rotation for a lot of 2024.
Rushing, the Dodgers top overall prospect and a top 50 overall prospect in baseball by every evaluation site, would be an intriguing centerpiece of a deal for Cease. His power projects well behind the plate for production as a catcher and has shown progression in his talent and working counts during his time in the minor leagues. His arm strength behind the plate is good enough to be productive at throwing out runners at the Major League level but could improve aspects of his framing and blocking abilities, which can be refined with more playing time in high-level minor league baseball. He does need more time in the minor leagues and likely will not contribute until 2025, but he would be a valuable piece to receive in a trade for Cease.
Pages, the Dodgers number six prospect, was having a fantastic 2023 season in the minors until his torn labrum injury when he debuted in AAA. His raw power is evident, hitting 26 and 31 home runs in each of his last two minor league seasons, alongside the ability to draw walks thanks to his improved plate discipline. While a hit tool is not a glaring trait in his game, he can certainly contribute as a hitter with his power. As a fielder, his arm is immensely strong, which may help overcome a lack of plus speed and range to play the outfield positions. While he is not projected to be a fantastic fielder, his arm will likely enable him to contribute defensively at one of the corner outfield positions. He is coming off an injury, but I think his profile is intriguing, and his consistent production and evolution at each minor league level leads me to believe he will continue to refine his game to be an everyday contributor for a Major League Team.
Hurt, a top 15 prospect in the Dodgers system, profiles more as a reliever than a starter, though it is not too late for him to continue growing toward starting pitching. Each of his pitches in his arsenal generated swings at misses at a very high level, generating a K/9 of at least 13.7 or higher in each of his last three minor league seasons. His fastball in the high 90s has serious ride that can make it very difficult to hit, and his changeup slots well beside that to provide a deceptive secondary pitch to play off of his fastball with a similar arm slot. Hurt’s biggest issue is his command, with a BB/9 rate of at least 4.3 in the last three seasons (including a BB/9 over 7 in 2022). He certainly has an appealing profile as a reliever, but his weaker control and command traits limit his upside for potential Major League contribution until proven otherwise.
