Potential Off-Season Trades: Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes has been among the league’s best pitchers over the last several years. Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young winner, sported a 10–8 record with a 3.39 ERA for the Brewers this year, along with 206 strikeouts, a walk rate of 3.11 BB/9, and the lowest WHIP in the National League with a 1.06. He also posted a FIP of around 3.81, which is above where he has been in previous years of independent performance. Burnes is also a Free Agent after the 2024 season, which leaves the Brewers in a compromising spot to trade him rather than lose him in free agency for nothing.

Boston Red Sox

The Offer: Jarren Duran, Kyle Teel, and Emmanuel Valdez for Corbin Burnes.

New Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow has made it abundantly clear he needs to revamp starting pitching in the Red Sox organization by any means necessary, whether it be via free agency or trade. The Red Sox present a natural fit for Burnes, who can come in and headline a rotation alongside Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, and potentially a free-agent acquisition. If the Red Sox want to restore themselves to competitive baseball next year, they need more frontline starting pitching, and Burnes would provide that. Boston would also be a team that can afford his impending contract in free agency, so it does not have to be viewed as a rental for the club.

For the Brewers, meanwhile, they get Major League caliber outfielder in Duran who can contribute to their team immediately and is coming off a fantastic year, where he posted an average of .295 with an .830 OPS, along with a 120 wRC+ in 102 games. While a lot of underlying metrics suggested he overperformed to an extent, it was nice to see Duran put things together at the major league level, and has control through the 2027 season, so he is a valuable asset and a building block for a team in transition.

Teel, the Red Sox first-round pick, as well as a top 100 prospect, was regarded as the best catcher in the 2023 MLB draft by most draft experts and analysts. He slid to the Red Sox at 14, but he would be a premier building block for the Brewers to acquire for someone of Burnes’s caliber. He has a lot of raw athleticism for a catcher, which is rare. He is good defensively behind the plate and shows ability in throwing runners out with a strong arm, and is among the more effective pitchframers in college baseball. He has displayed solid bat-to-ball skills and contact abilities at the plate and projects more to develop a hit tool than having raw power. Regardless, Teel would be an exciting piece for the Brewers to add for the future.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Offer: Johan Rojas, Justin Crawford, and Christian McGowan for Corbin Burnes.

Assuming Mick Abel and Andrew Painter are off limits in a trade for a player without multiple years of control, anything else the Phillies have should be considered for a player of Burnes’s caliber to maximize the Phillies championship window, especially if Aaron Nola leaves in free agency. The Phillies will either want to add to their starting pitching or will need to add to their starting pitching, so they could be in the mix for Burnes.

Rojas could suffice as a Major League outfielder who can be on the Brewers opening-day roster as their starting centerfielder. His defense is superb there due to his arm and impeccable speed, and he made strides this year as a hitter. If the Phillies look to avoid mortgaging their pitching depth, Rojas should be next up in a trade discussion.

Justin Crawford, the son of Carl Crawford, has a profile akin to Rojas due to his outstanding speed that positively correlates to his defensive abilities. Crawford, however, has shown a lot of promise with his bat, and his contact skills are advanced for a player of his age. While he currently lacks power, he could still build on that due to his frame. He has the potential to have each of the five tools to be a strength of his if his development continues on an upward trajectory. He is a prospect, while unrefined, that has a lot to be excited about for a player his age.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Offer: Diego Cartaya, Nick Frasso, and Jose Ramos for Corbin Burnes.

The Dodgers, who have now lost five starting pitchers in the last 14 months to serious injury or personal issues, suddenly need starting pitching in 2024 that they have not had to endure in a very long time. They have the prospect capital to appease the Brewers, and have an immediate need for experienced front-line starting pitching.

Cartaya is the Dodgers number three overall prospect and a top 100 prospect, which will provide the Brewers with a catching prospect who can be their future at the position. He has raw power and arm strength that profile well behind the plate. His approach seemed to dissipate this year in AAA, so he needs more time to refine his approach before entering the Major League Level.

Frasso, another top 100 overall prospect and a top 5 prospect in the Dodgers system, also provides the Brewers with a long-term avenue to replace Burnes with someone who can develop into a front-line starting pitcher. Frasso has the athletic frame fastball velocity and movement profiles that are ideal for the modern MLB. His secondary pitches, especially his changeup, have continued to progress in his ability to generate swings and misses with his secondary pitches. There is more to refine with his secondary pitches, as well as his command at times, but there is a lot to like that the Brewers feel could help bring them a consistent major league starting pitcher.