Potential Off-Season Trades: Juan Soto
Juan Soto, one the Major League Baseball’s best players, could be on the trade market this off-season. The Padres, who reached the NLCS in 2022, are coming off of a disappointing year where they missed the playoffs in 2023 despite having one of the league’s highest payrolls. In addition, the team is having liquidity issues and had to receive a loan to fulfill short-term obligations within the last few months. Soto, who is pretty much the only star player that the Padres have not given a contract to, likely makes sense to be dealt in a trade, considering the state of the Padres roster and their financial troubles.
Soto, one of the league’s best players, had a great 2023 season, hitting .275 with 35 home runs and 109 runs batted in. In addition, he led the national league with 132 walks, had a .410 on-base percentage, and had an on-base plus slugging percentage over .900. Soto also had an xwOBA of .410, wRC+ of 155 and an fWAR of 5.5, all of which are amongst the best in the entire league. Soto’s value as a hitter is well-defined for any team trying to trade for him. The bigger risk is that Soto is a free agent after the next off-season, and figures to try and test the market by any means necessary as his agent is Scott Boras, so he could be a potential flight risk in spite of a team giving up a lot of prospect capital for his services. With that in mind, who would be among the teams interested in acquiring Soto that could retain his services for the long term?
New York Yankees
The Offer: Jasson Dominguez, Clarke Schmidt, and Austin Wells for Juan Soto.
The Yankees, coming off of arguably their most disappointing season in the 21st century, are eager to put themselves at the forefront of contention in the American League in 2024. Soto would be an excellent place to start with that in mind, and New York is a team that can afford the long-term desires of Soto’s next contract.
Soto would play remarkably well as an addition to the Yankees lineup alongside Aaron Judge and would provide them with the best left-handed hitter in their lineup who also places a premium on getting on base, something the Yankees as a team definitely have not had a surplus of in past seasons consistently since Mark Teixeira.
While Yankee fans are understandably reluctant to deal with any prospect of value at times, you have to give to get. What teams hope Dominguez becomes is what Juan Soto currently is, so it is a worthwhile gamble for the most storied MLB franchise that is on one of its longest championship droughts ever.
Dominguez, more commonly known as “The Martian” for his physical traits that were deemed out of this world going back to his younger days as a prospect from the Dominican Republic would be the main piece of return for the Padres in this deal. While Dominguez will be out much of 2024 due to Tommy John Surgery, the Padres feel he would be a better fit for their long-term needs than Everson Pereira or Anthony Volpe. Dominguez has a lot of appealing physical traits that make him an intriguing prospect. He is a physical specimen who has plus speed, raw power, and above-average arm strength. While he has taken his time in development in the minors as he did not traditionally face a lot of live pitching in comparison to other prospects his age in his earlier development, there has always been evidence to suggest he could potentially be a five-tool player if his development continues to progress. His bat speed and batted ball data that correlated to it were impressive during the course of his time in the minors and showed the ability to adjust over time at each level. Dominguez reached the MLB at the end of 2023 before his injury, so he is already an MLB-caliber player. He still has levels of progression to go in his development, but his physical profile and age make him enticing for the Padres when trading someone of Soto’s caliber away to another team.
Schmidt would provide value to the Padres as a proven MLB pitcher who has several years of control. Schmidt would likely play very well in translation to one of the friendlier pitcher parks in the league (96 park factor, which was 26th in the league), and with one of the best defensive teams behind him (+26 OAA in 2023). While Schmidt is not a front-line starting pitcher and has the profile of a fourth or fifth starter in a team’s rotation, a player of his value under control for multiple years would be incredibly valuable to the Padres, who are likely already starting to deal with the results of overspending on players. His walk rate has declined in each of the last four seasons (6.6% in 2023) and consistently has a K/9 in the mid to high 8s (8.4 K/9 in 2023). Schmidt’s four-pitch mix and his ability to prevent giving out free base runners have helped him find a home in the Yankees rotation, and pitching in San Diego would only make it more likely for him to produce at a high level for a starting pitcher.
Wells, the third prospect in this deal, is the top-catching prospect in the Yankees system. He has been lauded for his offensive contribution and his approach as a catcher, both of which are excellent for the position. He has the ability to hit, and can also hit for power, both of which are useful for someone in the position. Wells can call games amicably, frame pitches consistently, and has the athletic build to be fluid enough behind the plate at the position. His biggest liability is his arm, which is weaker for the position, and runners in the minor leagues took advantage of that on him in 2023. Regardless, he would also potentially be a major league contributor for the 2024 Padres, who will likely lose Gary Sanchez as a result of whoever signs Blake Snell in free agency.
New York Mets
The Offer: Pete Alonso and Ronny Mauricio for Juan Soto.
In this blockbuster deal, the Mets and Padres exchange star for star. The Mets, who have been reportedly considering trading Alonso away before next season and have been anticipated to be one of the main suitors for Soto in the 2024 free agency period, get their man a year early. Soto immediately brings a presence to the lineup more constituted to working counts and getting on base, something their lineup has sorely lacked over the last several years.
The Padres, meanwhile, get a star player back when trading Soto away at a position of need, and have a star whose next contract will be more akin to their budgetary restraints. Or, if the Padres feel that Alonso may not be a viable fit for their long-term solutions, they can trade him at next season’s deadlines with Alonso being one of, if not the most likely, top deadline target on the market for a contender.
In addition, the Padres get Mauricio in the deal as they are giving up the superior star in Soto. Mauricio, a top 5 prospect in the Mets system, has the potential to develop in-game power at the major league level and can play multiple positions, particularly in the outfield, where he would likely be in San Diego. Mauricio’s AAA this year displayed growth with a decrease in his strikeout rate and improved ability to have solid contact on multiple pitch types. Mauricio has consistently drawn walks, but his overall makeup as a hitter improved in 2023, and can contribute to a major league team immediately in 2024, which would make him of interest to the Padres, who are seeking to retool rather than rebuild.
San Francisco Giants
The Offer: Kyle Harrison and Luis Matos for Juan Soto.
In this last deal, this trade goes between division rivals. While the Padres would prefer to deal with Soto outside of the division, it does not mean that the Dodgers and Giants would not have established interests in acquiring Soto for their 2024 team. While the Dodgers seem like a much more distant possibility due to their recent entanglements with the Padres and the fact they currently need starting pitching, the Giants, on the other hand, have only made the playoffs once in the last six seasons, and will be looking to make a big-time acquisition that will place them closer to contention in 2024. If the Padres deem the Giants offer to be the best, then they ought to consider it, because there is still a tangible possibility Soto would depart from the Giants in the 2024 off-season.
The Padres get two of the more highly regarded young pieces in the Giants system. Harrison, a consensus top-50 prospect in baseball, would likely be the centerpiece of the deal in the eyes of the Padres. He is projected to be a potential front-line starting pitcher at the major league level, and that comes with merit. He arguably has one of the best, if not the best ability to generate swings and misses at the minor league level over the last three seasons. His fastball, slider, and changeup are all plus pitches, and his fastball in particular plays well in generating outs with his arm angles due to his unique release. His sweeping slider also has put away capabilities that hitters have not fared well against, and his changeup is a plus pitch. In 2023, however, Harrison struggled a bit in AAA because of his lack of control and feel for his pitches, which led to an uptick in walks and the number of guys getting on base against him, which led to him getting into more trouble and not going deeper in games. His strikeout and whiff rates were still there, but his command faltered at the last hurdle, which had not been a concern previously. Regardless, Harrison would be a great prospect for the Padres to acquire who can find a home in their rotation in the future.
While Matos has graduated from the prospect tag, he has multiple years of control and was a top 100 prospect in previous years. His ability to make contact is strong, but his approach needs refining at the major league level. He is recognized for having athleticism that helps him defend at a high level with a decent arm. Matos’s questions as a prospect, along with his approach, come from the question of whether or not he will be able to harness slightly above-average power in the majors. He never displayed a lot of in-game raw power in the minors, but it is believed that he could have a profile better than his minor-league statistics indicated. While I do not believe that is the case, I am curious about his valuations within the Padres organization who got to see him in 2023 at the major league level.
