Potential Off-Season Trades: Paul Goldschmidt
The St. Louis Cardinals, coming off their toughest season in a very long time, are entering a tumultuous period of transition. Paul Goldschmidt, the 2022 NL MVP, who is coming off a down year, akin to much of the Cardinals roster, is also a free agent after next season. The Cardinals may look to trade him in the last year of his contract to help rebuild their farm system and get a head start on their rebuild within the organization.
Goldschmidt would be a potent middle of the order right-handed bat for a contender looking to increase productivity and ability to get on-base out of first base. He posted a .363 OBP, .810 OPS, 122 wRC+, and a .385 wOBA in a down year by his standards, which is still highly productive for a middle of the order bat.
Seattle Mariners
The Offer: Emerson Hancock and Prelander Berroa for Paul Goldschmidt.
Seattle is coming off a year in which they narrowly missed the playoffs and may be motivated to push towards championship aspirations, especially having watched a division rival of theirs win the World Series that made the playoffs over them by two games. Seattle did not get the production they were hoping for from their right-handed hitters, whether it be Ty France at first base, Teoscar Hernandez in the outfield, or even Julio Rodriguez (defensively was outstanding, but offensively was sluggish until later in the season by his standards). Goldschmidt would provide a boost for this offense in need of another impact bat from the right-handed side while providing improved defense from France at 3rd base.
Hancock, while promising, has had injury issues in his career and is older than some of the other mariners promising arms. The Mariners have plenty of young starting pitching depth, with Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, and Hancock. Not to mention that they already have Luis Castillo to headline the rotation and will have Robbie Ray returning from Tommy John Surgery in 2024.
While starting pitching depth is immensely valuable, the Mariners need to improve their offensive production from the right-handed side of the plate if they want to continue being in contention for a World Series Title among the Astros and Rangers in their division, not to mention the rest of the American League.
The Cardinals would ideally like to get a controllable starting pitcher in return, and Seattle is giving up one of the secondary rotational depth pieces in return for a more productive offensive lineup and would be receiving a solid return for someone in their late 30s who is on an expiring contract. They also get Perroa, who may profile better as a relief pitcher, but has shown a demonstrated ability to generate swings and misses at the minor-league level.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Offer: Orion Kerkering, Simon Muziotti, and Christian McGowan for Paul Goldschmidt.
If the Phillies are unable to retain Rhys Hoskins, who is a free agent, Goldschmidt would make sense to fill their void at first base as Bryce Harper returns to the outfield next year. Goldschmidt would provide that lineup with another decorated right-handed bat who could further elevate their team’s ability to get on base, which really only came from Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh last year. If they get positive regression from both Trea Turner and Goldschmidt, especially pertaining to run creation, their lineup would have even more potential to cause pitchers headaches in playoff baseball.
The Phillies have a pressing need to compete and win right now, and they need to capitalize on this window while their core is still in its prime and competing against the likes of the Braves in their own division.
The Cardinals could go multiple directions in what they would be interested in from Philadelphia. Griff McGary is intriguing as a prospect in terms of his overall traits, but he may profile more as a reliever at the Major League level due to his inability to harness his stuff consistently. Kerkering has a similar profile relative to his potential role at the Major League level as a reliever but is not as highly thought of in terms of raw traits. Muziotti, while not inspiring with a lack of power, has impressive contact and bat-to-ball skills. He also has the ability to defend in centerfield, along with his speed to patrol it, which will be a decisive part of the Cardinals’ hope that he is an everyday player. These traits tend to be valued more than most in the Cardinals organization. Lastly, McGowan gives the Cardinals a starting pitching prospect to work with in this deal. He has a repertoire containing a Fastball, Slider, and Changeup and has demonstrated the ability to pitch effectively in the lower levels of minor-league baseball. He is older and has had an injury history, which makes him less desirable than other pitchers the Phillies have in their system, but it also means there is a lot to potentially see with McGowan that has not yet been discovered relative to other Phillies top 30 prospects whom we know of already.
Baltimore Orioles
The Offer: Joey Ortiz, Jud Fabian, and a PTBNL for Paul Goldschmidt.
The Orioles, coming off of an impressive 2022 season that saw them win 100 plus games for the first time since 1980 and win the division for the first time since 2014, are looking to continue building their young roster toward annual contention and World Series Titles.
At its outset, it may not appear the Orioles need Goldschmidt, and they may very well not. Their infield will have Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. Coby Mayo will likely have one of the corner infield spots, and Ryan Mountcastle is a serviceable first baseman with control through 2026. All of those points are true. The Orioles, however, should have an intent to maximize their championship window, and bringing in a veteran like Goldschmidt to be around these growing young stars that the Orioles have would be even more of a benefit than the quantifiable benefits of acquiring him in my opinion.
Numerically, Goldschmidt will provide another productive right-handed bat with power who can get on base at a highly effective clip, which I think would go a long way in the heart of the Orioles lineup in 2024 with Rutschman, Holliday, Henderson, and more. In baseball, nothing is absolute, of course, and the Orioles do not need to acquire Goldschmidt. I do think, however, to maximize the window with the roster that they have built, someone of his makeup would be valuable for the Orioles, both on and off the field. The Orioles can also trade Mountcastle with control for additional prospect depth if necessary.
Ortiz is arguably already a major league caliber infielder, where there is an evident logjam of the rising Orioles prospects. He provides St. Louis with who is MLB-ready and could be on their opening-day roster in 2024. He can absolutely be a plus defender at shortstop in the Major Leagues, something St. Louis immensely values, as previously mentioned, and has shown palpable development in his approach and an increase in raw power during his time in the minor leagues with the Orioles.
Fabian, meanwhile, has highly impressive raw power dating back to his play at the University of Florida that would be tantalizing for any talent evaluator. He does provide a high strikeout percentage as a tradeoff to his raw power, as he tends to have higher rates of swings and misses. Fabian also demonstrates the ability to work counts and get on base, which would complement his power approach quite well if he develops into a major-league hitter.
