Potential Off-Season Trades: Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber, one of the better pitchers in the MLB over the last five years, is a prime trade candidate this off-season for a Guardians team entering a period of transition. Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner, is coming off a down year in 2023 in which he posted a 3.80 ERA with a 3.87 FIP on only 128 Innings Pitched. His K/9 rate reached a career low of 7.5 strikeouts per 9 innings, and teams around the league are curious whether he is still an effective frontline starting pitcher.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Offer: Tyler O’Neill and Gordon Graceffo for Shane Bieber
The Cardinals, who will look to bolster their starting rotation, look to move on from O’Neill and his inconsistent bat, along with Graceffo, in an attempt to improve their starting pitching. Bieber, while questions remain about whether he can be an ace going forward, has only shown decline in 2023, and could revert to positive regression in St. Louis with a stellar defensive team behind him. He would likely be the second starting pitching acquisition for the Cardinals in an attempt to bolster their rotation, but St. Louis has to find creative ways to be competitive in 2024.
O’Neill, while his bat has declined in 2022 and 2023, has always been an admirable defensive outfielder. It remains to be seen whether his bat can consistently be impactful for a team, as the only year he has displayed impressive exit velocities and contact rates was in 2021. O’Neill has shown what he can be at his best, an all-star caliber outfielder. He will need a new environment to display his skills, and Cleveland may be a good place for him to do that as he enters his final year before free agency.
Graceffo, meanwhile, would headline the return the Guardians receive for Bieber as one of the top pitching prospects in the Cardinals system. He has exciting traits, including a fastball that profiles in the mid to high 90s and a plus slider that can be effective as a secondary pitch. Graceffo’s main issue, however, is that he does not generate enough swing and misses relative to other prospects in the minor leagues, with a K/9 rate that hovers around 9 in the minors, which is lower for a prospect of his standards. He struggles with command and throwing strikes on a consistent basis, and that leads to inconsistencies. When he is able to locate, he has been a highly effective minor league pitcher, but his inconsistencies come out more than a team would like. With that being said, if he can learn to align his changeup to play off of his fastball, it would be a benefit for him as he tends to have two stronger pitches, followed by two other pitchers that he currently does not use as much on a consistent basis to get outs. Graceffo still has work to do in order to be a major league starter, but he has intrigue as a middle-to-back half of the rotation starter for a major league team someday.
Texas Rangers
The Offer: Owen White, Kumar Rocker, and a PTBNL for Shane Bieber
The Rangers, coming off their first World Series Title in Franchise History, will likely lose Jordan Montgomery in Free Agency and would like a stopgap pitching replacement to cover losing Jacob deGrom for most of 2024 due to Tommy John Surgery. Bieber would fit the profile of a reliable veteran starting pitching that would play well for the Rangers behind their stellar defense, especially if Bieber does not revert to generating more swings and misses or soft contact. While his presence is not that of Jacob deGrom or Nathan Eovaldi who use a fastball in the high 90s to play his other pitches off of, he still historically has the ability to command the zone with his mix of pitches and would serve well as a short term solution for the 2024 Rangers.
In this deal, the Guardians acquire two pitchers in the Rangers system, with future values of 40 and 45, respectively.
Rocker, infamous for his time as a dominant starting pitcher at Vanderbilt, is well known to most observers. He has suffered multiple injuries over the last few years, including undergoing Tommy John Surgery which will keep him out until May or June of 2024. At his peak, he would put people away with his powerful slider as his putaway pitch, and a curveball that would freeze hitters with his placement. His fastball in the mid to high 90s worked at the college level, but in the minors has not been as consistent in his brief stints in the minors. He needs to improve the command and location of his fastball to consistently get outs at the major league level because he could play off of it with his off-speed pitches in a highly effective manner with proper fastball command and location. He is a gamble, but one I believe the Guardians would be willing to make in this situation.
White, meanwhile, also underwent Tommy John Surgery in 2019 but has since gone on to have a well-rounded development path in the minors. He does not necessarily have a pitch that is a glaring strength of his, but all five of his pitches have shown the potential to be plus pitches for him and does not have one that is considered a liability on his behalf (fastball, slider, cutter, changeup, curveball). His variety in his pitches enables him to toy with sequencing more since there is no glaring weakness. As a result, he has been able to play into his production with a diversity of pitches to throw at hitters. His control at times lacked consistency in 2023, and historically he has shown more in that department, so there is reason for optimism for someone who made it to the major league level with the Rangers in 2023 and can be a part of the Guardians 2024 rotation.
Boston Red Sox
The Offer: Alex Verdugo and Nick Yorke for Shane Bieber
In a recurring theme, the Red Sox need starting pitching, and it is the top priority for new Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow. They have the prospect capital and major league talent that could appeal to the needs of most teams, and will likely use that to their advantage in pursuing starting pitching. Bieber, who is not as perfect of a systematic pick in Boston as the other two places, would be much more need-oriented, with Breslow believing he can help Bieber regain his form at Fenway Park with a front office that will emphasize the development of starting pitching.
Verdugo is a proven major league outfielder who provides good defense and a productive contact bat in an MLB lineup. Verdugo needs a change of scenery and a place where he feels he can contribute freely, and Cleveland needs additional reinforcements to their lineup if they intend to be competitive in 2024. Verdugo could have a new long-term home with a stable organization.
Yorke, meanwhile, is one of the better positional prospects in the Red Sox minor league system. He has demonstrated the potential of developing a solid hit tool at the major league level thanks to his disciplined approach and ability to hit all fields. While power is not a part of his approach since his swing paths are more designed for line drives, Yorke has a mechanically sound swing that provides fluidity for him to have consistent levels of solid contact during his time in the minor leagues. His defense limits his ability to play multiple positions, in which he likely will only provide adequate defense at second base due to his lack of range. Yorke has the opportunity to be a consistent MLB player due to his hitting approach that has displayed his contact and bat-to-ball skills.
