The Future of Juan Soto: Extension, Trade, or Free Agency looming.
One potential long-term extension report on the table for this off-season is for Padres outfielder Juan Soto. Soto previously rejected a 15-year, 440 million-dollar contract while still a member of the Nationals. Soto will possibly be the second player to garner a contract for greater than 500 million dollars (behind the inevitable Ohtani contract).
The Padres have a core that is built to win right now but are already over the luxury tax due to having multiple players under long-term contracts like Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Joe Musgrove, and Yu Darvish making more than 20 million dollars per year. Soto can get paid, but the Padres’ financial flexibility is limited for at least the next five seasons, so the Front Office and Ownership need to be sure that Soto is worth the price of heavily going into the luxury tax and penalized on draft picks.
Soto will be entering his age 25 season this off-season, and his potential contract will maximize the window of his prime from ages 25–30 relative to others who receive their free agent contract at age 29 or 30. Soto is one of the most well-rounded players in baseball. His ability to get on base is unmatched, as demonstrated by an OBP over .400 every year of his career, leading the league twice in OBP and Walks, the latter of which he is on pace to do this year. He routinely posts good power numbers, with an average of 30 homers in the three full seasons he has played, as well as being on pace for more than 30 during this year as well, along with a .945 OPS career average. Soto has also posted numbers in the 90th percentile or better during the last two full seasons along with 2023 so far, on average, in the following: Average Exit Velocity, Max Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, xWOBA, xSLG, Walk Rate, Chase Rate, and a Barrel Rate around the 85th percentile (via Baseball Savant). His xBA rates over the last three seasons have been a mixed bag, though his results this year better reflect his xBA relative to his Batting Average (.268 versus .266). Soto also has posted a wRC+ of 143 or better every year, which is spectacular (A wRC+ of 143 would have ranked anywhere in the 10–12 range over the last three full seasons).
Soto, though not a great fielder, has shown signs of marginal improvement, posting OAA and FAA rates at -5.0 or lower in three of the last four full seasons, though his UZR rates are not very promising. His arm strength has been above the 50th percentile the last two seasons along with this year on average, as well as posting an outfielder jump rate in the 46th percentile over the last two full seasons plus this year, according to Baseball Savant. He would be adequate defensively in a corner outfield spot, though defense is not his strength.
Projections
As for projections, Soto has posted an average fWAR of 5.5 over the last three full seasons and is on pace to slightly eclipse that, with an fWAR of 3.7 thus far this year. ZIPS projects him to have an fWAR of 6.5 for the next two seasons of his prime after this one, which is among the top ten players in the league on average. Assuming Soto’s decline starts at age 31, Soto should be projected to have a fWAR averaging out at 7.0 fWAR for his 27–30 seasons. Projection models such as Steamer or ZIPS are effective. I also want to account for the variability of players losing .5 fWAR a season from age 30 on. On a typical age curve, if Soto wins NL MVP with an 8.0 WAR at 30, Soto would have a 7.5 fWAR at 31, 7.0 at 32, 6.5 at 33, 6.0 at 34, 5.5 at 35, 5.0 at 36, 4.5 at 37, and 4.0 at 38 in his final year of a 14-year contract. This projection means he would be an all-star caliber player until he is 36. This optimistic projection for his entire contract would put him at a career fWAR of around 116, amongst the top 15 position players of all time. Over the life of this contract, Soto would accumulate 87 fWAR.
I, however, do not feel it is realistic for Soto to perform that well for 14 years straight. I prefer to account for years where Soto will be injured or decline more rapidly, so I would measure Soto in the 70th percentile throughout this contract, which would subtract 26 fWAR from the optimistic projection and would put him at around 61 fWAR for the contract duration and 90 fWAR for his career, which is still a Hall of Fame career. His average fWAR during the contract would be around 4.36 (61/14) fWAR per season in the 70th percentile, which I believe is more realistic than the optimistic projection of 6.21 fWAR per season (87/14).
Soto could be offered a deal of 14 years and 450 million dollars, bypassing his last year of arbitration and taking him through his age 38 season. Accounting for typical free agent spending per Win Above Replacement (8.5 million/WAR) in 2022, and the fact that Soto has 14 years, 450 million taking him through his age 38 seasons (32.14 million AAV), it would garner Soto around 7.4 million per fWAR in the 70th percentile (450/61 = 7.40 Million), which is on slightly under the par of free agency spending on players who do not have a ceiling near his. The optimistic projection is 5.8 million per Win Above Replacement (450/87 = 5.17 Million).
In my above-average projection in the 70th percentile, Soto relative to 2022 free agency is underpaid, and an even more pessimistic projection in the 50th percentile (43.5 fWAR in ages 25–39) would cost the Padres approximately 10,300,000 per Win Above Replacement (450/43.5 = 10.34 Million). The pessimistic projection is still worth having the entirety of his prime. Soto does not rely on speed and has traits that I believe will age well going into the heart of his prime and after it. Soto, in my opinion, will always be a productive hitter because of his incredible plate discipline and ability to make consistent contact with his hand and bat speed. He should be of paramount importance to extend, as he is just as valuable, if not more valuable, than Fernando Tatis or Manny Machado due to his age profile and maturity. The Padres, however, while they do seem to suddenly have deeper pockets, I wonder if an extension of this magnitude is a little too much for their liking.
Prediction
I believe Soto would entertain accepting this contract offer as it meets the financial thresholds of what he and Scott Boras are seeking to meet. I cannot guarantee, however, that he would accept it since Boras loves to have his clients hit the open market, and anticipate that he would rather Soto’s services be awarded to the highest bidder.
The Padres have a difficult decision to make, and it will define their short-term and long-term future. I believe they will ultimately trade Soto in order to re-tool for the 2024 season and beyond under a more structured budget.
